Wild weather is a way of life for people living along the coast in the Philippines, Taiwan, China and Japan. But the last few months have been extraordinary.
A wave of intense and, at times, unpredictable storms exacerbated by the El Niño weather pattern has killed dozens, shuttered major airports and wiped out crops and infrastructure across a swathe of East Asia.
In October, nearly all of Taiwan shut down as a monster storm big enough to engulf the island of 23 million roared towards its north-eastern coast. Equivalent to a category five hurricane, Typhoon Champi’s 295km/h (193mph) winds had the power to flatten homes and whip up destructive waves.
Thankfully it did not make landfall in Taiwan, skirting past the island while dousing it in rain. But it had far-reaching impacts: hundreds of flights were cancelled in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan. In the Philippines’ Batanes archipelago, seaside highways shut as huge waves crashed onto the shore, and in southern Japan’s Okinawa islands, power was cut to 15,000 homes.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon in which warm waters pooling in the eastern Pacific and altered wind patterns drive extreme weather events around the world.
It happens around every two to seven years, lasting for around a year. This year’s El Niño, which the UK Met Office has forecast to be the “strongest in living memory”, is likely to last until February or March.
In June, Japan watched two storms – Typhoon Mekkhala and Severe Tropical Storm Higos – race towards its eastern coast simultaneously, forcing one million people to evacuate. In July, Tropical Storm Narra grazed China’s southern coast along Guangxi, submerging villages and displacing tens of thousands.
In August, Typhoon Chan-Hom baffled storm watchers in Japan by crossing the country from east to west, as opposed to the usual south-to-north trajectory. Japan’s well-resourced and prepared authorities were able to evacuate people swiftly, but this would be far more challenging in some neighbouring countries.
To get a better picture of how rising temperatures could amplify the risks, Manila-based climatologist Rafaela Jane Delfino and colleagues simulated the effects of warmer conditions on the Philippines’ most recent monster storms, including 2013’s Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) which killed more than 6,000 people.
They arrived at what she describes as “very, very scary findings”: higher temperatures increased total accumulated rainfall by 26%. It’s a devastating prospect in a country where flooding from monsoon rains and some 20 tropical storms per year has emerged as one of the main disaster risks.
In recent years, floods have paralysed entire cities for days, and tired of the annual ordeal, Filipinos have taken to the streets to protest against corruption which they say is gnawing away at millions of dollars from flood-control projects.
Delfino, in an article on the University of the Philippines website, insists leaders and officials must gain a better understanding of climate hazards if communities are to be better prepared.
