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SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Utah’s Republican-led Legislature approved a revised congressional map Monday that could give Democrats an improved chance at flipping a seat as they fight to topple the GOP’s slim majority in the U.S. House. But in a state dominated by Republicans, it remains a long-shot that Democrats could win a district next year.
Republicans currently hold all four of Utah’s House seats.
In the court-ordered redraw, two districts become slightly competitive for Democrats — one more than the other — but all four still lean Republican. The map places Salt Lake City in a single district that stretches into rural areas, instead of splitting the heavily Democratic city among multiple districts.
Redistricting experts say it’s the least competitive proposal lawmakers considered, and likely Republicans’ best bet at safeguarding their seats. But Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, said he sees “a prime pickup opportunity.”
The districts still must be reviewed by a judge, who is expected to approve a new map by November.
In August, Judge Dianna Gibson struck down the congressional map adopted after the 2020 census because the Legislature had circumvented standards established by voters to ensure districts don’t deliberately favor a party, a practice known as gerrymandering.
The mandated redraw comes as President Donald Trump has urged other Republican-led states to take up mid-decade redistricting ahead of the midterm elections to add winnable seats for the party.
Utah’s revised map creates some uncertainty in a state that was thought to be a clean sweep for the GOP. Nationally, Democrats need to net three House seats next year to wrest control of the chamber from Republicans, who are trying to buck a historic pattern of the president’s party losing seats in the midterms.
Republican state Sen. Scott Sandall, a co-chair of the Legislature’s redistricting committee, said there are a lot of things they would have done differently if not for the time crunch. Still, he thinks the judge will have no reason to reject the map.
After taking public comment on several proposals, Republicans chose to move forward with the least competitive option. Commenters appeared to favor a proposal from Democrats until the Utah Republican Party sent out an email to rally support for the map now approved by lawmakers.
Democratic state Sen. Nate Blouin was scolded by Republican leaders on the Senate floor when he said he thinks it’s no coincidence that the map most favorable to Republicans was chosen. Sandall insisted the committee did not consider political data.
A handful of Republicans joined Democrats in opposing the map.
During Monday’s special session, Republicans also amended Proposition 4 — a voter-approved ballot initiative from 2018 that sparked the redistricting case — requiring each new district to have a partisan vote share similar to Utah’s recent statewide election results. Republican Gov. Spencer Cox signed it into law later Monday, and the voting rights groups involved in the legal challenge responded with a motion arguing lawmakers were trying “to change the rules of the game.”
Jonathan Cervas, a redistricting expert at Carnegie Mellon University, ran data from past elections in Utah against the redrawn map and found that Democrats would lose every time. That indicates that the map is uncompetitive, he said.
“Although it’s not as competitive as I think the plaintiffs would want, I think it’s far better than the map that currently exists — a stark improvement,” Cervas said.
The map thrown out by Gibson more significantly divided Salt Lake County — Utah’s population center and an island of Democratic support. Before the map was adopted in 2021, one district had traded hands between Democrats and Republicans. All have since elected Republicans by wide margins.
Gibson will now review the map approved by lawmakers and consider alternate proposals from the voting rights groups. If she shoots it down, Cervas anticipates a legal battle over whether the court has authority or an obligation to put in place a map of its own.
If the revised map stands, redistricting analyst Jason Fierman thinks “it’s not insurmountable” for Democrats.
“An extremely strong candidate in a blue wave year might be able to possibly break this cycle of Democrats not winning any of these seats,” said Fierman, who has consulted on maps in other states. Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams could be one such candidate, he said. “This could really be a ‘game on’ moment for Democrats, but it would be challenging.”
